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供应链与生产运营 (供应链与生产运营 (Supply Chain & Production Operations) — 面向制造业与消费品实体供应链的『计划-制造-交付』运营判断,不是采购谈价技巧,也不是跨境电商发货物流。覆盖: (a) 第一性张力 — 这行的核心世界观分歧: **流动 > 局部效率(用有效产出/流动时间看系统,而不是用设备利用率/人均产出看工位;非瓶颈上的效率是幻觉) ⇄ 精益拉动 vs 推式预测(TPS/JIT 按下游消耗拉动、小批量平准化 vs MRP 按预测展开净需求推动;DDMRP 解耦缓冲是第三条路) ⇄ 精益/丰田 TPS 派 vs 约束理论 TOC 派(消除七大浪费、全局改善 vs 五步聚焦瓶颈、鼓-缓冲-绳 DBR 排产;两派互相指责对方浪费时间/只治标) ⇄ 变异是敌人(Deming/六西格玛/Factory Physics 的 VUT 排队论: 利用率越靠近满载排队时间越爆炸,交期长不是产能不够而是变异+高负荷) ⇄ 库存是负债 vs 库存是缓冲(会计把库存记成资产、精益视其为掩盖问题的水位、TOC 与韧性派视其为吸收变异的必要缓冲;真问题是缓冲放在哪一层而不是有没有) ⇄ 精益 JIT vs 韧性冗余(2020-2023 断链后 just-in-case、多源、近岸/友岸的回摆;精益派反驳崩的是『假精益』——单一来源+砍库存不砍变异) ⇄ 服务水平 vs 库存成本(安全库存/报童模型/ABC-XYZ 的经典取舍,牛鞭效应放大上游波动) ⇄ 成本导向压价 vs 供应商共生开发(Kraljic 分级、丰田供应商协会式长期共生 vs 年降指标与竞价) ⇄ 一个数 vs 各部门各算各的(S&OP/IBP 的本质是跨职能对齐到一套数字与一份产销计划))**; (b) 工具栈(此行的工具是『系统+方法』的混合) — ERP/MRP(SAP S/4HANA PP·MM、Oracle、用友·金蝶、Odoo、NetSuite)、APS 高级计划排程(Kinaxis RapidResponse、o9、Blue Yonder、SAP IBP、OMP、Siemens Opcenter APS)、MES/车间执行(Siemens Opcenter、Rockwell FactoryTalk、黑湖智造)、WMS/TMS、需求预测(统计模型 + Nixtla StatsForecast/Prophet、FVA 预测增值分析)、运筹优化与仿真(OR-Tools、Gurobi、Pyomo、AnyLogic、FlexSim、SimPy)、供应链风险与多级可视(Resilinc、Everstream、Interos)、分析层(SQL/Python pandas/Power BI)、以及纸笔工具(价值流图 VSM、A3、看板、标准作业票)—— 选型决策树的关键分岔是 MTS/MTO/ATO/ETO 履行模式与需求变异度,而非厂商功能清单; (c) 心智模型层 — 利特尔法则(在制品 = 产出率 × 流动时间)、瓶颈与非瓶颈、缓冲三态(库存/时间/产能缓冲)、解耦点(客户订单渗透点 CODP)、牛鞭效应、takt time 节拍与产线平衡、OEE 与六大损失、muda·mura·muri 三种浪费、自働化 jidoka 与安灯、防错 poka-yoke、SMED 快速换模换出小批量、平准化 heijunka、PDCA 与丰田改善型 Toyota Kata、DMAIC 与 Cpk 过程能力、报童模型与安全库存公式、ABC-XYZ 分级; (d) 工作流/SOP — 跑一轮月度 S&OP(需求评审→供应评审→预 S&OP→执行 S&OP)、做需求预测与预测误差复盘(MAPE/WMAPE/bias/FVA)、设定库存分级与安全库存、MRP 跑批与例外消息处理(缺料齐套与 MRP 神经质)、瓶颈识别与 DBR 排产、价值流图现状图→未来图→改善计划、新品导入 NPI 与多级 BOM/ECN 工程变更、供应商选择与开发(RFQ→审厂→APQP/PPAP→量产→年度绩效)、断料应急与交期承诺(ATP/CTP)、循环盘点与库存准确率; (e) 知识正典(en/ja 一手极厚,中译齐全) — 《目标 The Goal》Goldratt(TOC 小说体奠基)、《丰田生产方式》大野耐一、《改变世界的机器》Womack·Jones·Roos(MIT IMVP 研究)、《精益思想 Lean Thinking》Womack & Jones、《丰田模式 The Toyota Way》Liker、《工厂物理学 Factory Physics》Hopp & Spearman(排队论视角的运营科学)、《学习观察 Learning to See》Rother & Shook(VSM)、《丰田套路 Toyota Kata》Rother、Spear & Bowen 的 HBR 1999《Decoding the DNA of the Toyota Production System》、Lee/Padmanabhan/Whang 1997《The Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chains》、Ptak & Smith 的 DDMRP、Orlicky 的 MRP、Chopra & Meindl 的供应链管理教材、Deming《转危为安 Out of the Crisis》、Sheffi《The Resilient Enterprise》、ASCM/APICS 的 SCOR 参考模型与 CPIM/CSCP 知识体系; (f) 行业大佬/figures — 大野耐一(TPS 立法者)、新乡重夫(SMED/防错)、Eliyahu Goldratt(TOC 创立者)、W. Edwards Deming(变异与系统观)、James Womack & Daniel Jones(把 TPS 译成西方可学的『精益』)、Jeffrey Liker(丰田模式学术化)、Mike Rother(VSM 与改善型)、Wallace Hopp & Mark Spearman(工厂物理学)、Hau Lee(斯坦福,牛鞭效应与 Triple-A 供应链)、Yossi Sheffi(MIT,韧性)、Carol Ptak & Chad Smith(DDMRP)、David Simchi-Levi(MIT,风险敞口指数)、Steven Spear(TPS 的 DNA)、以及中文圈的供应链实务作者(刘宝红等); (g) 争议/批判(必须保留不洗白) — JIT 是不是 2021 全球断链的元凶(精益派反驳:崩的是单一来源+砍库存不砍变异的『假精益』);西方学精益的高失败率(只搬工具不搬思维,精益在很多工厂沦为裁员的代号);六西格玛黑带官僚化与扼杀创新之争;TOC 派与精益派互相攻击(Goldratt 讽刺精益是等浪费自己浮现);预测无用论(需求驱动派说预测必然错、要靠缓冲吸收)vs 统计预测派;控制塔/数字孪生/AI 预测的过度承诺与高项目失败率;中国制造的年降与内卷式压价 vs 供应商共生;近岸·友岸外包是真实产能转移还是政治叙事; (h) 流派/思想谱系 — **精益/TPS 派(丰田血统:大野-新乡→Womack/Jones/Liker/Rother,信全局消除浪费与人的改善能力)** vs **约束理论 TOC 派(Goldratt:系统产出只由瓶颈决定,聚焦五步、DBR、缓冲管理)** vs **统计质量/六西格玛派(Deming-Juran-Shewhart→GE/Motorola,信减少变异与过程能力)** vs **运营科学/工厂物理学派(Hopp & Spearman:用排队论与数学定律解释,认为精益与 TOC 都是特例)** vs **需求驱动/DDMRP 派(Ptak & Smith:预测不可靠,靠战略解耦缓冲)** vs **韧性/风险派(Sheffi、Simchi-Levi:效率之外必须为断链设计)**。不含: 跨境电商卖家的发货与头程物流(已由 cross-border-ecommerce 覆盖)、纯采购的商务谈判技巧、企业级 ERP 的代码实施与二次开发、通用项目管理。) Master OS — automated mastery of 供应链与生产运营 (Supply Chain & Production Operations) — 面向制造业与消费品实体供应链的『计划-制造-交付』运营判断,不是采购谈价技巧,也不是跨境电商发货物流。覆盖: (a) 第一性张力 — 这行的核心世界观分歧: **流动 > 局部效率(用有效产出/流动时间看系统,而不是用设备利用率/人均产出看工位;非瓶颈上的效率是幻觉) ⇄ 精益拉动 vs 推式预测(TPS/JIT 按下游消耗拉动、小批量平准化 vs MRP 按预测展开净需求推动;DDMRP 解耦缓冲是第三条路) ⇄ 精益/丰田 TPS 派 vs 约束理论 TOC 派(消除七大浪费、全局改善 vs 五步聚焦瓶颈、鼓-缓冲-绳 DBR 排产;两派互相指责对方浪费时间/只治标) ⇄ 变异是敌人(Deming/六西格玛/Factory Physics 的 VUT 排队论: 利用率越靠近满载排队时间越爆炸,交期长不是产能不够而是变异+高负荷) ⇄ 库存是负债 vs 库存是缓冲(会计把库存记成资产、精益视其为掩盖问题的水位、TOC 与韧性派视其为吸收变异的必要缓冲;真问题是缓冲放在哪一层而不是有没有) ⇄ 精益 JIT vs 韧性冗余(2020-2023 断链后

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Classical end-to-end empirical analysis workflow in the traditional Stata ecosystem — native Stata + reghdfe + ivreg2 + csdid + did_imputation + eventstudyinteract + sdid + rdrobust + rddensity + synth + synth_runner + psmatch2 + teffects + ebalance + coefplot + esttab + asdoc + binscatter. **Defaults to economics empirical-paper style** (AER / QJE / AEJ) — every run produces a publication-ready output set with a multi-column regression table (M1→M6 progressive controls/FE) as the centerpiece, plus Table 1 (descriptives), mechanism / heterogeneity / robustness tables, and event-study + coefficient + trend figures. Covers the full 8-step Stata pipeline an applied economist runs on every paper — (1) data import & cleaning (use/import, destring, misstable, duplicates, merge assert), (2) variable construction (gen/egen/winsor2/xtile/xtset with L./F./D.), (3) descriptive statistics & Table 1 (tabstat/balancetable/asdoc), (4) classical diagnostic tests (sktest/swilk/hettest/imtest/xtserial/xttest3/vif/dfuller/kpss/hausman/estat overid), (5) baseline modeling (reg/xtreg/reghdfe/ivreg2/ivregress/csdid/did_imputation/eventstudyinteract/sdid/rdrobust/synth/psmatch2/teffects/heckman/qreg/ppmlhdfe), (6) robustness battery (bacondecomp/honestdid/rwolf/ritest/wildbootstrap/oster), (7) further analysis (subgroup/triple-diff/interactions/medsem/marginsplot/binscatter by group), (8) publication-ready tables & figures (esttab/outreg2/estout/coefplot/marginsplot/rdplot/twoway combined). **Also covers two parallel domain modes that share the same 8-step scaffolding** — **Mode A — Epidemiology / public health** (target-trial emulation, IPTW + g-formula + TMLE doubly-robust triplet via `teffects ipw` / `teffects ipwra` / `teffects aipw` / `eltmle`, Mendelian randomization via `mrrobust` (IVW / Egger / weighted median) and `mregger` / `mrpresso`, KM / Cox / AFT / RMST survival via `sts` / `stcox` / `streg` / `strmst2`, E-value sensitivity via `evalue` (Linden-Mathur), principal stratification — STROBE / TRIPOD reporting), and **Mode B — ML causal inference** (DML via `ddml` / `pdslasso`, S/T/X/R/DR meta-learners via `crforest` and `ddml interactive`, causal forest via `crforest` / `cforest`, BART/BCF via `bart` / `bartCause`-style externals, CATE distribution + policy tree via `crforest`, off-policy evaluation, conformal causal externals, fairness audit, DAG learning via `pcalg` / external Python callouts). Use when the user asks for a complete Stata empirical analysis, wants a reproducible .do-file pipeline, needs a Stata counterpart to the Python StatsPAI / Full-empirical-analysis-skill, or names a specific Stata step in isolation ("run reghdfe with two-way clustering", "csdid event study", "winsor2 at 1%", "esttab to LaTeX", "coefplot with CI", "ivreg2 weak-IV test", "synth_runner placebos", "teffects psmatch balance check"). Mode A triggers on "target trial emulation Stata", "teffects ipw aipw", "eltmle", "mrrobust", "mregger weighted median", "stcox AFT survival", "strmst2", "evalue Stata", "STROBE Stata", "公共健康 Stata", "流行病学 Stata". Mode B triggers on "ddml Stata", "pdslasso", "crforest causal forest Stata", "policy tree Stata", "因果机器学习 Stata".

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Dividend Discount Model, DDM valuation, multi-stage dividend model, Gordon Growth Model, dividend growth valuation, mature company valuation, income stock valuation, dividend yield analysis

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Fit cognitive drift-diffusion models (Ratcliff DDM) to reaction time and accuracy data with parameter estimation (drift rate, boundary separation, non-decision time), model comparison, and parameter recovery validation. Use when modeling binary decision-making with reaction time data, estimating cognitive parameters from experimental data, comparing sequential sampling model variants, or decomposing speed-accuracy tradeoff effects into latent cognitive components.

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Valuation methodology — absolute valuation with DCF / DDM / SOTP, relative valuation with PE-Band / PB-ROE / EV-EBITDA, sensitivity analysis, and valuation-trap detection.

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Use this skill when building, deploying, evaluating, debugging, or measuring latency for the DeepStream SOP Inference Microservice — a GPU-accelerated FastAPI service that detects whether operators perform assembly-line steps in order via event boundary detection (GEBD) plus VLM classification. Trigger even if the user does not name it: verify operator step sequence, detect missing or out-of-order SOP steps, score factory/work-cell video for procedure compliance, run VLM-based SOP checking on industrial cameras, or call /v1/chat/completions with a file, RTSP, or Basler camera. Also trigger for its internals: SOPVideoProcessor, DeepStream GEBD model (e.g. DDM) via Triton CAPI, nvds_custom_postprocess, Cosmos Reason 1/2 vLLM, SSE streaming, Kafka NvProto/JSON output, Basler/Pylon camera + emulation, Docker compose, chunk-level latency. Do NOT trigger for generic DeepStream pipelines, object detection/tracking, NIM imports, or video summarization.

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Decompose total effects into direct and indirect paths through mediators using mediation, CMAverse 4-way, HIMA/HIMA2 high-dimensional, BAMA, two-step / MVMR mediation, or double-ML medDML. Use when testing whether a molecular phenotype (expression, methylation, protein) mediates a treatment-outcome relationship, decomposing exposure-mediator interaction via VanderWeele 4-way, screening high-dimensional EWAS mediators, or running MR-based mediation when sequential ignorability is implausible.

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Create and simulate UAV scenarios with terrain, buildings, platforms, and sensors using uavScenario. Use when building a UAV simulation, UAV simulator, or UAV scenario in MATLAB. Covers addMesh for terrain/building import, uavPlatform with updateMesh, uavSensor adaptor pattern for GPS/IMU, and the setup/advance simulation loop. Triggers on: uavScenario, UAV simulation, UAV simulator, multirotor simulation, quadrotor scenario, terrain import, building import, GPS sensor simulation.

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Expert knowledge for Azure Energy Data Services development including troubleshooting, decision making, architecture & design patterns, security, configuration, integrations & coding patterns, and deployment. Use when configuring ADME metrics/partitions, choosing tiers, securing auth/ACLs/legal tags, or integrating ACZ/DDMS with Databricks/Fabric, and other Azure Energy Data Services related development tasks. Not for Azure Data Explorer (use azure-data-explorer), Azure Synapse Analytics (use azure-synapse-analytics), Azure Data Factory (use azure-data-factory), Azure Data Manager for Agriculture (use azure-data-manager-for-agri).

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添加单调递增ID工具。读取结构化数据文件，检查是否存在指定的ID字段（默认为ID0000）， 如果不存在则添加从1开始的单调递增ID字段，并将其放在第一列，最后输出为相同格式的文件。 当用户提到添加ID、添加自增ID、添加序号、添加行号等需求时使用此skill。 即使用户没有明确说出"添加ID"，只要任务涉及给数据添加自增ID，就应该使用此skill。

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Abusing Active Directory object ACLs (DACL/ownership) for privilege escalation and lateral movement (GenericAll, GenericWrite, WriteDACL, WriteOwner, AddMember, ForceChangePassword, and replication rights via DS-Replication-Get-Changes-All). Use when BloodHound CE shows an outbound control edge from a principal you own toward a higher-value object, and you want the exact bloodyAD/impacket command to weaponize that ACE, plus detection and remediation. DCSync is covered here strictly as a post-compromise technique, not a user entry path.

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Query Strava fitness data including activities, athlete stats, segments, routes, clubs, and gear. Use when the user asks about cycling, running, swimming, workouts, training, or Strava data.

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Decompose total effects into direct and indirect paths through mediators using mediation, CMAverse 4-way, HIMA/HIMA2 high-dimensional, BAMA, two-step / MVMR mediation, or double-ML medDML. Use when testing whether a molecular phenotype (expression, methylation, protein) mediates a treatment-outcome relationship, decomposing exposure-mediator interaction via VanderWeele 4-way, screening high-dimensional EWAS mediators, or running MR-based mediation when sequential ignorability is implausible.

日本語の概要は準備中です。原文の説明を表示しています。

Decompose total effects into direct and indirect paths through mediators using mediation, CMAverse 4-way, HIMA/HIMA2 high-dimensional, BAMA, two-step / MVMR mediation, or double-ML medDML. Use when testing whether a molecular phenotype (expression, methylation, protein) mediates a treatment-outcome relationship, decomposing exposure-mediator interaction via VanderWeele 4-way, screening high-dimensional EWAS mediators, or running MR-based mediation when sequential ignorability is implausible.

日本語の概要は準備中です。原文の説明を表示しています。