「uncertainty」の検索結果

Tracks physical units and propagates measurement uncertainty in scientific calculations using pint and uncertainties. Use for unit conversion and dimensional checking, GUM uncertainty budgets, Type A and Type B evaluation, coverage factors and expanded uncertainty, Monte Carlo propagation, significant-figure and plus-minus reporting, error propagation through curve fits, CODATA constants, auditing Python code for stripped units or broken uncertainty propagation, and order-of-magnitude plausibility checks using dimensionless groups (Reynolds, Peclet, Damkohler, Knudsen, Biot, Womersley), characteristic scales such as diffusion time or Debye length, and observed magnitude ranges. Trigger on "is this number physically reasonable", "sanity check these units", "what regime is this flow in", or a result that looks off by orders of magnitude.

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Fix the psychologically significant moment, not the logically significant metric — Rory Sutherland on experience. Use when the outcome is fine but the journey feels bad: complaints about waiting, anxiety, uncertainty, or 'it's technically fast/cheap/correct but people still hate it'; when the user asks 'how do we reduce complaints', 'how do we make waiting/onboarding/checkout feel better', 'people are anxious during X', or is about to spend big to shave a number (wait time, load time, steps) when the real pain is how the moment feels. Covers uncertainty reduction, idle vs occupied waiting, and the peak-end rule. Inspired by Rory Sutherland's *Alchemy*. Routed to from psycho-logic. 日本語の相談（「待ち時間のクレームが多い」「手続きの途中で離脱される」「お客様を不安にさせている」）にも使う。中文咨询（“等待时间投诉多”“办理中途流失”“让客户感到不安”）也适用。

Design statistically honest and uncertainty-aware visualizations. Use when the user needs help showing distributions, intervals, confidence, missingness, sampling effects, or analytical rigor in charts and dashboards.

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Opinionated Bayesian modeling workflow with PyMC and ArviZ. Contains critical guardrails (nutpie sampler, prior/posterior predictive checks, LOO-PIT calibration, prior sensitivity checks, 94% HDI, non-centered parameterizations, reproducible seeds) that agents won't apply unprompted — always consult before writing Bayesian model code. Trigger on: building probabilistic/Bayesian models, prior elicitation, MCMC inference, convergence diagnostics (divergences, R-hat, ESS), model comparison (LOO-CV, ELPD, stacking weights), hierarchical/multilevel models, count regressions, logistic regression with uncertainty, prior sensitivity analysis, reporting Bayesian results, or mentions of PyMC, ArviZ, InferenceData, credible intervals, posterior distributions, shrinkage, uncertainty quantification. Also trigger for model comparison, diagnosing sampling problems, choosing priors, or presenting stats to non-technical audiences.

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Design and implement Monte Carlo methods for uncertainty quantification, risk analysis, and probabilistic simulations across scientific and financial domains. Use when "monte carlo, random sampling, uncertainty quantification, risk analysis, stochastic simulation, MCMC, variance reduction, probabilistic, " mentioned.

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Use when a task needs the judgment of a Calibration Technologist/Technician — computing a Test Uncertainty Ratio (TUR) and deciding whether it meets the 4:1 target, building a measurement uncertainty budget (Type A/Type B, GUM-style) for a calibration, tracing a reference standard's chain of custody to NIST/SI, setting or adjusting a calibration interval from in-tolerance/out-of-tolerance history, or writing the accept/reject call and guard-banded pass/fail on a calibration certificate.

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Detects when Claude is uncertain but presenting answers confidently. Teaches Claude to recognize and communicate uncertainty clearly instead of masking it with confident language.

日本語の概要は準備中です。原文の説明を表示しています。

Apply crisis decision-making research to agent routing, uncertainty triage, and coordination failure analysis in time-pressured systems. Use when diagnosing handoff failures, analytical paralysis, or expert judgment under incomplete information. NOT for routine coding, simple CRUD design, or static single-agent tasks with complete information.

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Knowledge base from the GAO Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide (GAO-20-195G). Use for program cost estimating: the four characteristics of a reliable estimate (comprehensive, well documented, accurate, credible) and the 18 best practices; the 12-step cost estimating process (purpose, plan, technical baseline, WBS, ground rules and assumptions, data, point estimate, sensitivity, risk/uncertainty, document, present, update); estimating methods (analogy, parametric, engineering build-up, learning curves); Monte Carlo risk/uncertainty analysis, confidence levels and contingency; auditing and validating an estimate against the characteristics; earned value management (EIA-748, BCWS/BCWP/ACWP, CPI/SPI/TCPI, EAC, PMB, IBR); and specialized techniques (software cost estimating, learning curves, Analysis of Alternatives, WBS templates, the Green Book internal-control framework). This is the cost-estimating companion to the GAO Schedule and Technology Readiness Assessment guides. Does not cover schedule estimating/risk in depth (see the GAO Schedule Assessment Guide), agency-specific cost models, or the full text of referenced standards (EIA-748, MIL-STD-881D, the Green Book) — these are named, not reproduced.

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Knowledge base from the NASA Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures Guide (NASA/SP-2011-3421, 2nd ed.). Use for quantitative PRA of aerospace and safety-critical systems: the risk triplet and scenario logic stack (MLD, ESD, event trees, fault trees, minimal cut sets), Bayesian data collection and parameter estimation, aleatory/epistemic uncertainty modeling and common-cause failure (Alpha Factor, beta-factor, CCBE), human reliability analysis (THERP, CREAM, NARA, SPAR-H), context-based software risk (CSRM), physics-based and structural/phenomenological models (stress-strength, limit states, FORM/SORM, NASGRO, range safety), uncertainty propagation and importance measures (F-V, RAW, Birnbaum, DIM), and launch-abort modeling with worked PRA examples. This is the QUANTITATIVE engine beneath NASA's risk doctrine — for the qualitative RIDM/CRM decision framework use the nasa-risk pack. Thin on programme management, organisational risk governance, and non-aerospace regulatory contexts; aerospace-focused and anchored to the 2011 second edition.

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The perception-by-culture lens for psycho-logic — establish HOW a specific region, country, or subculture reads a signal before you send it, because perception is culturally coded and the same move can mean the opposite elsewhere. Use when adapting a product, price, message, or campaign to a new market; when the user asks 'will this work in [country/region]', 'why does this land in X but flop in Y', 'how do people here perceive Z', 'how do we localise/differentiate by region', or is about to copy a US/global playbook into another market. Covers the cultural dimensions that move Sutherland's levers — uncertainty avoidance, individualism/collectivism, status/power distance, high- vs low-context communication, mental-accounting norms, trust locus, and taboo/sacredness — and how each rewires reframing, costly-signaling, and experience-design. Inspired by Rory Sutherland's *Alchemy*. Routed to from psycho-logic; pair with market-recon for live local data. 日本語・中文の相談（「この地域で通用する？」「适合本地市场吗？」）にも使う。

Apply crisis decision-making research to agent routing, uncertainty triage, and coordination failure analysis in time-pressured systems. Use when diagnosing handoff failures, analytical paralysis, or expert judgment under incomplete information. NOT for routine coding, simple CRUD design, or static single-agent tasks with complete information.

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工場やオフィスの電力・天然ガス調達を、料金体系、使用量、契約条件から検討するスキル。供給会社の比較、ピーク料金対策、再生可能エネルギー契約や予算作成を支援します。

• 複数拠点のエネルギー見積もり比較
• 料金プランとピーク料金の見直し
• 再生可能エネルギー契約・証書の評価

Write or revise a useful Paperclip plan with a clear outcome and verification. Use when a plan is requested or uncertainty needs resolving before execution.

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Fits probabilistic models for single-cell omics, including scVI batch integration, scANVI annotation, totalVI CITE-seq, MultiVI RNA/ATAC integration, and posterior differential expression. Use for generative modeling, reference mapping, multimodal analysis, or model-based uncertainty; use scanpy for standard preprocessing and exploratory analysis.

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Supports structured what-if scenario analysis for research planning, experimental contingencies, and scientific project decisions. Explores favorable, reference, adverse, wild-card, contrarian, and second-order scenarios with explicit assumptions, evidence, and decision triggers. Use to stress-test a research plan under uncertainty; scenario narratives do not estimate causal effects or calibrated forecast probabilities.

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Fits and diagnoses Python statistical models including OLS, GLM, discrete and mixed models, ARIMA and SARIMAX. Supports coefficient inference, marginal effects, model comparison and time series forecasting with explicit design and uncertainty checks. Used for econometrics and statistical modeling; for guided test selection with APA reporting, see statistical-analysis.

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Creates Seaborn statistical visualizations with pandas integration for distributions, relationships, categorical comparisons, regression displays, pair plots, and heatmaps. Supports function and objects interfaces with explicit aggregation, uncertainty, and missing-data handling. Best suited to static exploratory plots; plotly covers interactive figures and scientific-visualization covers publication styling.

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Creates and audits truthful, accessible, publication-ready scientific figures with Matplotlib, Seaborn, or Plotly. Use it for figure design, multi-panel layouts, uncertainty and missing-data displays, color/contrast review, image metadata validation, and journal export planning.

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Builds and checks Bayesian models with PyMC, including hierarchical models, NUTS MCMC, variational inference, mutable-data predictions, posterior predictive checks, diagnostics, and PSIS-LOO model comparison. Use for probabilistic modeling and uncertainty inference in PyMC.

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Solves seawater carbonate chemistry with PyCO2SYS for chemical oceanography, ocean acidification, and marine carbon-cycle research. Use for paired total alkalinity, dissolved inorganic carbon, pH, or seawater pCO2/fCO2 measurements; carbonate speciation; aragonite and calcite saturation; Revelle factors; lab-to-in-situ temperature and pressure corrections; and measurement uncertainty propagation. Applies to carbonate-system calculations, not general aqueous speciation or air-sea gas-flux estimation.

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Use before responding to pressure for agreement, manufactured urgency, authority appeals, or requests to certify unsupported claims; separate evidence from persuasion and state uncertainty.

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Analyze cross-channel campaign data, quantify uncertainty, and propose evidence-labeled budget tests without overstating causality.

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Audit or improve manuscript statistical reporting, including experimental units, replication, uncertainty, tests, and figure statistics. Use for 统计审查、统计方法小节、图注统计 and reviewer concerns; compute new analyses only when requested with data.

日本語の概要は準備中です。原文の説明を表示しています。