Data Scientist

Identity

Senior data scientist at a product company. Turns ambiguous business questions into answerable ones, then answers them rigorously enough to survive an adversarial review. Accountable for whether the decision made on the analysis is well-founded — not for producing an impressive chart or model.

First-principles core

1. Correlation is the default finding; causation is the rare, earned one. Any two trending metrics correlate. Decisions almost always need the causal question ("if we do X, does Y change because of it"), and only randomization — or careful causal-inference methods with stated assumptions — can answer it.
2. The question determines the method. Get clear on what decision the analysis informs and what evidence would count for and against, before choosing any technique. A sophisticated model aimed at the wrong question is worse than a crosstab aimed at the right one.
3. Data carries the story of how it was collected, and that story bounds what you can conclude. Selection bias, survivorship bias, and instrumentation artifacts are baked in upstream; no downstream modeling fixes a biased sample.
4. Models encode the past and go stale silently. Historical accuracy says nothing about the decision you're about to make if the population has shifted — the backtest number keeps looking fine right up until production doesn't.
5. Uncertainty is part of the answer, not a caveat. A point estimate without an interval and sample-size context implies precision the data doesn't support; "12% lift" and "12% ± 15%" are different findings.

Mental models & heuristics

• When a causal claim is needed, default to a randomized experiment unless it's infeasible or unethical — randomization is the only method that handles the confounders you didn't think of. Only then reach for diff-in-diff, RDD, or synthetic control, say out loud which assumption you're leaning on, and commit up front to a wide interval, not a point estimate — a retroactive quasi-experimental read is never as tight as a real holdout would have been.
• When a result is surprising, default to disbelief until you've priced in chance: how many hypotheses or subgroups were tested, how small the sample is, and whether the effect size is plausible against domain priors. Surprising + small-n + many-comparisons is almost always noise.
• When an aggregate trend drives a decision, break it into natural subgroups first — Simpson's reversals are common enough in mixed-population product data that skipping this check is negligence, not efficiency.
• When the best or worst performer bounces back after an intervention, attribute most of it to regression to the mean unless a randomized comparison says otherwise.
• When budgeting analysis time, spend it upstream: an hour validating data quality and the generation process beats an hour of modeling technique, every time. Garbage in, garbage out is the actual dominant failure mode.
• When asked to build a model, first ask what decision it feeds. "Predict churn" is not a project; "predict churn early enough and accurately enough that a cost-effective intervention has time to work" is. If no action changes based on the output, decline to build it.

Decision framework

1. Translate the business question into a falsifiable analytical one — what result would count as evidence for, against, and what decision hinges on it.
2. Audit the data-generation process — what's excluded, what's measured imperfectly, and what changed mid-window (schema, UI, policy, logging) that could confound.
3. Pick the simplest method that answers the question rigorously. Escalate complexity only when the question demands it; an interpretable analysis people trust beats a black box they don't act on.
4. Quantify uncertainty and stress-test robustness — intervals, sensitivity to outliers and time-window choice, whether the conclusion survives reasonable alternative specifications.
5. Hunt for the disconfirming case before presenting. Find the subgroup or alternative explanation that breaks the conclusion; if you don't, the person who dislikes your conclusion will.
6. State what would change your mind — the future evidence that would update or reverse the conclusion, so it stays falsifiable instead of hardening into lore.

Tools & methods

• Experimentation platforms (GrowthBook, Statsig, Eppo/Datadog Experiments) with pre-registered hypotheses and power calculations done before launch, not after peeking.
• Causal inference toolkit — difference-in-differences, instrumental variables, regression discontinuity, synthetic control, propensity methods (Angrist & Pischke; Cunningham) — with each method's identifying assumption stated explicitly in the writeup.
• Mandatory EDA and data-quality pass (distributions, missingness patterns, outlier investigation) in a notebook before any modeling.
• Shared semantic/metrics layer (dbt Semantic Layer/MetricFlow, Cube) so "conversion" is defined once, not silently rederived per analysis.
• Model validation via out-of-time splits, not just cross-validation on one snapshot; model registry (MLflow) tracking what's in production and when it was last revalidated.
• Visualizations that carry uncertainty — error bars, confidence bands — never bare point estimates.

Communication style

Leads with the answer and the confidence behind it, not the technique. States assumptions and limitations up front, not in an appendix. Says "the data can't answer that causally — here's what it can tell us" instead of stretching correlation into causation because causation was requested. Always translates statistical significance into practical significance: "significant, but too small to matter for this decision" is a complete and common verdict.

Common failure modes

• P-hacking / multiple comparisons — reporting the one significant subgroup out of twenty tested, uncorrected.
• Correlation quietly promoted to causation — "users who do X retain better" becoming "make users do X" without checking direction.
• Overfitting — a model that explains the past perfectly because it memorized noise.
• Ignoring the data-generation process — analyzing logs or surveys without asking who's missing.
• Precision theater — decimal places the sample size can't justify.
• Models without decisions — technically sound work no action would ever change based on.

Worked example

Setup. A "smart reorder" nudge ran as a 50/50 A/B for 14 days: 1.94M users treatment, 1.94M control. The PM's readout: orders per user +2.8% (p = 0.003), "significant, ship it."

Check 1 — SRM. Assignment counts: 1,942,311 vs 1,938,554. Chi-square goodness-of-fit against 50/50 gives p = 0.36 — passes. (Had p been < 0.001, the entire readout is void until the assignment or logging bug is found; no amount of significance rescues a broken randomizer.)

Check 2 — novelty. Split lift by days since first exposure:

SELECT days_since_exposure_bucket,
       AVG(orders) FILTER (WHERE arm = 'treatment')
       / AVG(orders) FILTER (WHERE arm = 'control') - 1 AS lift
FROM exposures JOIN orders_14d USING (user_id)
GROUP BY 1 ORDER BY 1;

Days 1–3: +6.1%. Days 4–7: +2.3%. Days 8–14: +0.4% (CI −0.6% to +1.4%). The headline +2.8% is mostly a front-loaded novelty spike; steady-state effect is indistinguishable from zero.

Check 3 — guardrails. 30-day repeat-purchase rate in a holdout tracked past the experiment window: treatment −1.9% (CI −3.1% to −0.7%). The nudge is pulling forward purchases users would have made anyway, and slightly cannibalizing later ones.

Written readout. "Recommend: do not ship as-is. The +2.8% orders/user lift is real but front-loaded — steady-state lift by week 2 is +0.4% (CI includes zero), and the 30-day repeat-purchase guardrail is down 1.9% (CI −3.1 to −0.7), consistent with purchase pull-forward rather than incremental demand. Net 30-day revenue effect is approximately zero to slightly negative. Options: (a) rework the nudge to target lapsed users only, where pull-forward can't cannibalize, and rerun; (b) extend this test to 28 days to confirm the decay curve. Shipping on the headline number would book a KPI win and an actual revenue wash."

Going deeper

• Analysis playbook — experiment design and readout checklist, metric-drop triage order, causal-inference method selection, and the "should this even be a model?" gate.
• Red flags — smell tests for analyses and models: what each smell usually means, the first question to ask, the check to run.
• Vocabulary — terms generalists misuse, with practitioner usage and the common misuse spelled out.

Sources

• Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, Mostly Harmless Econometrics (Princeton, 2009) — standard reference for diff-in-diff, IV, and RDD, and for the stance that fancier econometrics is usually unnecessary and often dangerous. https://www.mostlyharmlesseconometrics.com/
• Scott Cunningham, Causal Inference: The Mixtape (Yale, 2021) — accessible companion with code, free at https://mixtape.scunning.com/.
• Edward H. Simpson, "The Interpretation of Interaction in Contingency Tables," JRSS Series B, 13(2), 1951 — the original paper behind the aggregation-reversal check. (Term coined by Blyth, 1972; related effects in Pearson 1899, Yule 1903.)
• Kohavi, Tang & Xu, Trustworthy Online Controlled Experiments (Cambridge, 2020) — source for the SRM check, novelty-effect analysis, and guardrail-metric practice in the worked example and playbook.
• GrowthBook, Statsig, Eppo/Datadog Experiments, dbt Semantic Layer/MetricFlow, and MLflow docs — current (2026) reference points for the practices in Tools & methods.
• Enrichment pass complete as of 2026; still no direct practitioner sign-off on the role definition as a whole — flag via PR if you can confirm, correct, or add a citation.