「hypothesis」の検索結果

Frame an epic as a testable hypothesis with target user, expected outcome, and validation method. Use when defining a major initiative before roadmap, discovery, or delivery planning.

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实践认识论：把方案、假说或判断放回实践中检验，按「实践 → 认识 → 再实践」螺旋迭代，并在开始前写明循环终止条件。当你提出了假说要验证、一次尝试失败要复盘再来、发现自己只想不做或只做不想时触发；一次性输出、答案可直接查阅、还没形成假说（先调查）时不触发。 English: Practice-cognition loop. Test a hypothesis or plan in practice, learn from the result, and iterate in a rising spiral with an explicit stop condition. Trigger when a plan needs validation, an attempt failed and must be retried, or you notice thinking without doing (or doing without thinking); skip for one-shot outputs, lookup questions, or before any hypothesis exists.

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Property-based testing with fast-check (TypeScript/JavaScript) and Hypothesis (Python). Generate test cases automatically, find edge cases, and test mathematical properties. Use when user mentions property-based testing, fast-check, Hypothesis, generating test data, QuickCheck-style testing, or finding edge cases automatically.

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Generate falsifiable trade strategy hypotheses from market data, trade logs, and journal snippets. Use when you have a structured input bundle and want ranked hypothesis cards with experiment designs, kill criteria, and optional strategy.yaml export compatible with edge-finder-candidate/v1.

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Create or assess an evidence-grounded, falsifiable outcome hypothesis: a testable prediction of what measurable business result will change, for whom, by when, and how leading and lagging indicators will prove or disprove it. Use when framing measurable outcomes, turning an MVP, POC, feature, or technical initiative into a beneficiary result, defining targets and indicators, or judging whether evidence is strong enough to invest. Also applies to business outcome hypotheses, value hypotheses, and outcome statements.

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A discipline for running paid media that does not light money on fire. Hypothesis writing for paid spend, channel selection, budget allocation, audience targeting, bid strategy, campaign types, what NOT to spend on, attribution reality, and the failure modes that produce expensive lessons. Triggers on paid media strategy, ad budget allocation, channel selection, paid media plan, audit my Google Ads, audit my Meta Ads, scale paid media, kill underperforming campaign, paid media hypothesis, ad spend strategy, attribution reality, performance marketing strategy. Also triggers when a team is asking how to scale paid media, or whether to add a new channel, or how to reallocate spend across channels.

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Systematic scientific hypothesis formulation and evaluation

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Evidence-before-action diagnosis of failing ML experiments. Probes the system before guessing causes, process list, dmesg, GPU stats, log scrollback, checkpoint state, then states a hypothesis as a hypothesis and runs a smoke before claiming a root cause. Use when the user asks why a run is failing, diverging, OOMing, hanging, slow, producing weird metrics, has crashed, or asks to debug, diagnose, troubleshoot, or investigate a training issue.

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Automated hypothesis generation and testing using large language models. Use this skill when generating scientific hypotheses from datasets, combining literature insights with empirical data, testing hypotheses against observational data, or conducting systematic hypothesis exploration for research discovery in domains like deception detection, AI content detection, mental health analysis, or other empirical research tasks.

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Systematic debugging methodology - scientific method, hypothesis testing, and root cause analysis that works across all technologiesUse when "bug, debugging, not working, broken, investigate, root cause, why is this happening, figure out, troubleshoot, doesn't work, unexpected behavior, debugging, root-cause, hypothesis, scientific-method, troubleshooting, bug-hunting, investigation, problem-solving" mentioned.

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The science of learning through controlled experimentation. A/B testing isn't about picking winners—it's about building a culture of validated learning and reducing the cost of being wrong. This skill covers experiment design, statistical rigor, feature flagging, analysis, and building experimentation into product development. The best experimenters know that every test, positive or negative, teaches something valuable. Use when "a/b test, experiment, hypothesis, statistical significance, sample size, feature flag, variant, control, treatment, p-value, conversion rate, test winner, split test, experimentation, testing, statistics, feature-flags, hypothesis, growth, optimization, learning, validation" mentioned.

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Build AI agents that automate scientific research — hypothesis generation, experiment design, data analysis, and paper writing using agentic tree search. Use when: automating research workflows, generating and testing hypotheses, building AI-powered research assistants.

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Designing A/B tests: hypothesis docs, sample size, feature flags, significance analysis, CUPED, SRM detection, switchback experiments. Use when hypothesis validation is needed.

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Expert guide for property-based testing (fast-check, Hypothesis) and mutation testing (Stryker, mutmut) — AI-generated test properties, invariant discovery, mutation score optimization, and test suite quality verification / Panduan ahli property-based testing (fast-check, Hypothesis) dan mutation testing (Stryker, mutmut) — properti tes yang dihasilkan AI, penemuan invarian, optimasi skor mutasi, dan verifikasi kualitas suite tes.

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Formal oracle for abductive inference that selects the minimal hypothesis best explaining a set of observations. Provides three sub-oracles: MCMC via monad-bayes, Gemini for natural language, and propagator networks for constraint domains. Use when performing hypothesis selection, explaining observations, or solving inference-to-best-explanation problems.

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Use when facing unknowns, debugging without a clear cause, or making architecture decisions — enforces hypothesis-driven scientific reasoning through observation, hypothesis formulation, prediction, experiment design, and evidence-based conclusion. Use when previous attempts have failed or the problem space involves uncertainty.

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Turns a theory into falsifiable, pre-registerable hypotheses: DGP and DAG, identification, estimands, SESOIs, test choice among NHST, equivalence, and minimum-effect tests, scope conditions, and hypothesis tiers. Use when converting a research question into testable predictions or predicting a null.

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Scaffold and run Karpathy-style autoresearch loops in any git repo. This skill should be used when setting up autonomous code improvement, generating adversarial eval harnesses, running hypothesis-implement-eval-keep/discard loops, or checking autoresearch progress. Triggers on "autoresearch", "autonomous improvement", "eval loop", "hypothesis loop", "self-improvement loop".

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Construct well-structured arguments using the hypothesis-argument-example triad. Covers formulating falsifiable hypotheses, building logical arguments (deductive, inductive, analogical, evidential), providing concrete examples, and steelmanning counterarguments. Use when writing or reviewing PR descriptions that propose technical changes, justifying design decisions in ADRs, constructing substantive code review feedback, or building a research argument or technical proposal.

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Hard-gated ideation for an Arbor research run. Load at the START of every IDEATE round, before drafting any hypothesis. Enforces the PI mindset (mechanism over knob), the four-question first-principles probe, the kill-filter, and the four-line hypothesis format. Ported from Arbor's idea_drafting + first_principles_probe.

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Design a research study. Use when the user says "study design", "design my research", "what research method should I use", "how do I test this hypothesis", "research plan", "methodology section", "experimental design", "survey design", "qualitative study design", "how to structure my study", "sample size", "data collection plan", or needs to plan how to test a research question or hypothesis - even if they don't explicitly say "study design".

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Autonomously improve a real artifact (code, training recipe, agent harness, data pipeline, prompt) against an objective and an evaluator, using Hypothesis Tree Refinement (HTR) from the Arbor paper. Use this whenever someone wants to iteratively optimize something over many experiments without overfitting — e.g. "get my model's eval score up", "improve this agent/harness", "tune this pipeline", "beat the baseline on this benchmark", "run a search over approaches and keep the best", "do an MLE-bench / Kaggle-style optimization", or any long-horizon "make this artifact better and don't just memorize the dev set" task. Trigger it even when the user doesn't say "Arbor" or "hypothesis tree" but describes repeated experiment-and-evaluate loops, branching exploration of competing ideas, or worries about a dev/test gap. Runs Claude itself as the coordinator with subagent executors in isolated git worktrees; for the standalone `arbor` CLI tool see references/arbor-upstream.md.

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Expert-level statistics knowledge. Use when working with probability distributions, hypothesis testing, regression, Bayesian statistics, statistical inference, experimental design, ANOVA, or statistical modeling. Also use when the user mentions 'p-value', 'confidence interval', 'hypothesis test', 'regression', 'ANOVA', 'chi-square', 't-test', 'Bayesian', 'maximum likelihood', 'statistical significance', 'correlation', 'normal distribution', or 'sampling distribution'.

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Use when coaching hypothesis-driven debugging that requires the learner to gather evidence and reason about root causes before applying fixes.

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