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china-break-trace

Forensic financial analysis for A-share companies. Identifies discrepancies, potential irregularities, and earnings quality issues in Chinese financial statements. Adapted from the original break-trace skill for CAS accounting and Chinese market red flags. Triggers on "A股财务核查", "财务异常", "forensic analysis China", "财务舞弊", "earnings quality China", or "investigate [company] financials".

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china-break-trace

Purpose

Conduct A股财务核查 — forensic analysis to identify potential issues in Chinese financial statements.

Data Sources

Primary: iFind MCP (Tier-1 付费) / AkShare MCP (Tier-2 免费备选)

get_financials(ticker, "income")     → Revenue, profit trends
get_financials(ticker, "balance")    → Balance sheet anomalies
get_financials(ticker, "cashflow")   → Cash flow quality

Secondary Sources

  • 巨潮 — filings, notes
  • 审计报告 — auditor opinion, emphasis of matter
  • 公告 — unusual transactions
  • 证监会/交易所 — inquiries, penalties

Workflow

Step 1: Revenue Quality Analysis

Revenue red flags:

IndicatorCheckRed Flag
应收账款/收入AR / Revenue>40% or rising fast
应收账款增速 vs 收入增速Growth comparisonAR growing >> Revenue
经营活动现金流/净利润OCF / Net Income<0.5 or negative
收入确认政策Notes reviewAggressive recognition
客户集中度Top customers>30% from one customer
关联交易Related partyHigh % of revenue

Revenue quality score:

MetricScore (1-5)Notes
OCF/NI ratio5 = OCF >> NI
AR days5 = low/stable
Revenue concentration5 = diversified
Growth quality5 = organic, recurring
Cash conversion5 = excellent

Step 2: Profit Quality Analysis

Profit red flags:

IndicatorCheckRed Flag
营业利润 vs 净利润Operating profit vs netLarge gap
非经常性损益Non-recurring items>20% of profit
政府补助Government subsidiesHigh % of profit
资产减值ImpairmentsIrregular timing
投资收益Investment incomeUnsustainable
毛利率趋势Gross marginUnexplained changes

Profit decomposition:

净利润 = 营业利润 + 营业外收支 - 所得税

分析重点:
1. 营业利润占比 (营业利润/净利润): 应>80%
2. 非经常性损益: 识别一次性项目
3. 政府补助依赖度: 补助/净利润
4. 减值损失波动: 是否平滑利润?

Step 3: Cash Flow Quality

Cash flow analysis:

MetricFormulaHealthyConcern
OCF/NIOCF / Net Income>1<0.5
FCFOCF - CapExPositiveNegative
OCF/RevenueOCF / Revenue>5%<0%
投资活动现金流Investing CFOutflows (growth)Large inflows (asset sales?)

Cash flow quality score:

IndicatorHealthyWarning
OCF consistently positive✓Negative OCF
OCF tracks NI✓Large divergence
CapEx sustainable✓CapEx >> OCF
No frequent asset sales✓Asset disposal income

Step 4: Balance Sheet Anomalies

Balance sheet checks:

AreaRed Flags
货币资金Large cash + high debt (possible restriction)
应收账款Rapid growth, aging issues
其他应收款Unusually large (possible tunneling)
存货Rapid growth, no explanation
在建工程Never completed (capitalized costs?)
商誉High % of equity (>30%)
长期待摊费用Unusually large
负债Off-balance sheet items

Specific balance sheet ratios:

RatioFormulaConcern
有息负债/净资产Interest-bearing debt / Equity>100%
货币资金/有息负债Cash / Interest-bearing debt<0.3
商誉/净资产Goodwill / Equity>30%
其他应收款/资产Other receivables / Total assets>5%
存货周转天数Inventory daysSudden increase

Step 5: Related Party Analysis

Related party red flags:

IndicatorCheck
关联交易金额% of revenue/costs
关联交易定价Arm's length?
关联应收应付Balances with related parties
资金占用Funds tied up with related parties
担保Guarantees for related parties

Common tunneling mechanisms:

  • 预付账款 to related parties
  • 其他应收款 from related parties
  • 资金拆借 without interest
  • Asset sales to related parties at non-arm's length prices
  • 担保 for related party debt

Step 6: Earnings Management Detection

Earnings management indicators:

MethodDetection
费用资本化CapEx unusual, D&A low
收入提前确认AR rising, 预收账款 falling
费用延后确认AP falling, accrued expenses low
减值选择性计提Timing of impairments
会计政策变更Policy change benefits
估计变更Reserve changes

Beneish M-Score (adapted for China):

VariableCalculation
DSRIDays sales in receivables change
GMIGross margin deterioration
AQIAsset quality index
SGISales growth index
DEPIDepreciation index
SGAISG&A index
LVGILeverage index
TATATotal accruals / Total assets

Step 7: Auditor & Filing Analysis

Audit report review:

ItemReview
审计意见Standard / Modified / Adverse
强调事项段Any emphasis of matter?
关键审计事项Key audit matters
审计师变更Recent change?
审计费用Unusual changes?

Filing review:

  • 年报 vs 中报 consistency
  • Notes completeness
  • Segment disclosures | Related party disclosures | Commitments and contingencies

Step 8: Regulatory Signals

Regulatory red flags:

SourceSignals
交易所问询函Inquiry letters
证监会关注函Regulatory attention
行政处罚Fines, penalties
交易所纪律处分Disciplinary actions
投资者诉讼Shareholder lawsuits

Common A-share Fraud Patterns

PatternDescriptionDetection
虚增收入Fictitious revenueAR anomaly, tax mismatch
虚减成本Understate costsMargin anomaly
关联交易非关联化Related party disguisedCustomer/supplier analysis
资金循环Round-trippingCash flow analysis
资产置换Asset swappingUnusual asset changes
会计估计操纵Estimate manipulationReserve changes

Quality Checks

Before delivering report:

  • All red flags investigated
  • Evidence documented
  • Severity assessed
  • Conclusions supported
  • Regulatory signals checked
  • Report structured clearly

Data Source Mode Switch: Set env var IFIND_DATA_SOURCE_MODE to control data source preference.

  • ifind-only (strict): Use iFind only, error if unavailable
  • ifind-fallback (default): iFind preferred, fallback to AkShare
  • akshare-only, wind-only (Wind only), wind-fallback (Wind first, fallback to iFind → AkShare): Skip iFind, use AkShare only

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